It is no secret that Elon Musk disrupts markets, alters narratives, and grabs headlines. However, although many believe he is a champion for cryptocurrencies, the truth may be slightly different. Although his statements can lead to price surges, with the most famous example of this being Dogecoin (DOGE), Musk does not actually endorse cryptocurrencies in the way many assume.

Clarity Is Key

Recently, Elon clarified that he is not backing any crypto asset, regardless of what his Dogecoin followers may think. At a recent Trump rally, Musk labeled cryptocurrencies as interesting and probably valuable. Coincidentally, Bitcoin (BTC) was already approaching $70,000, and his comment had little effect on pushing the price higher.

His casual reference to D.O.G.E. sparked the usual 25% jump in Dogecoin. Yet, despite these fluctuations, Musk has not made any personal investments in crypto, nor has his unpredictable relationship with crypto been well-documented.

He once passionately promoted Dogecoin, often joking about its potential. Despite the hype surrounding the meme coin, for Musk, it has remained more of a playful engagement than serious support. On the other hand, his concerns about Bitcoin center on its energy consumption, suggesting that Dogecoin might be a better option due to its lower energy usage.

Buying Votes

In a bold move, Musk proposed a $1 million daily giveaway to encourage voting for Donald Trump in battleground states. This prompted legal concerns almost immediately. Musk stated he wants to try to get over a million, maybe 2 million voters in battleground states to sign the petition in support of the First and Second Amendment, before adding that he will randomly award $1 million daily to those who sign the petition, leading up to the election.

Legal statutes clearly prohibit offering money in exchange for votes or voter registration, with violations potentially resulting in prison time of up to five years. Musk and his Political Action Committee (PAC) launched a website for the petition, targeting voters in states such as Pennsylvania, Georgia, Nevada, Arizona, Michigan, Wisconsin, and North Carolina.

Following legal scrutiny, Musk was advised to revise the language of the giveaway, but concerns remained, especially since the offer was available to individuals who registered after its announcement.

The BlackRock iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT) attracted approximately $329 million in new investments on Monday, even as Bitcoin (BTC) dipped under $67,000. With this impressive performance, U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs have managed to maintain a winning streak for an entire week, with net purchases surpassing $2.5 billion, according to data by Farside Investors.

Just a few months ago, BlackRock officially surpassed Grayscale Investments to become the new top crypto ETF manager, marking a significant change in the investment landscape.

BlackRock Remains Top Choice

On October 21st, the Fidelity Bitcoin Fund (FBTC) also noted gains of about $6 million on Monday. Conversely, rival ETFs by Bitwise, ARK Invest, VanEck, and Grayscale (GBTC) faced redemptions exceeding $40 million, while other ETFs reported no new inflows.

Meanwhile, BlackRock continues to be a favored option for those looking to invest in Bitcoin. Last week alone saw over $1 billion in net capital enter the fund, representing half of the total inflows for U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs. As stated by Bloomberg ETF analyst Eric Balchunas, IBIT has now secured the third position overall in less than ten months since its launch.

Cautiously Optimistic

According to recent data by BlackRock, the Bitcoin holdings of IBIT were valued at $26.5 billion as of October 18th, 2024. Despite the recent price volatility, ongoing interest in Bitcoin ETFs indicates strong institutional participation, although upcoming U.S. elections and global tensions may affect market stability.

Bitcoin reached a high of $69,500 on Monday before dropping below $67,000. It is currently trading at around $67,400, reflecting a 2% decline in the last 24 hours, as reported by CoinGecko.

U.S. attorneys are urging President Biden to take action regarding the detention of Binance executive Tigran Gambaryan by Nigerian authorities, highlighting concerns about his health. 18 state attorney generals sent a letter to Biden and Secretary of State Antony Blinken expressing alarm over the situation, noting that Tigran has been in custody for more than seven months.

Binance CEO Richard Teng has also demanded the immediate release of Tigran due to inhumane treatment and worsening health in Nigerian detention. Gambaryan, whose condition has deteriorated since contracting malaria in May, is reportedly being denied proper medical care.

An Alarming Situation

Gambaryan, a U.S. citizen and Binance employee, was arrested in February during a visit to Nigeria related to regulatory matters. His colleague, Nadeem Anjarwalla, managed to leave Nigeria in March, but Gambaryan remains incarcerated and faces allegations of money laundering and tax evasion, purportedly as a representative of Binance.

Attorneys general representing various states including Utah, Connecticut, and Kansas described his detention as unlawful, suggesting it serves as a tactic by Nigerian authorities to leverage their ongoing disputes with Binance.

They expressed particular worry about how Gambaryan has been rapidly deteriorating healthwise, indicating he has not received necessary treatment for malaria, pneumonia, and a herniated disc, which have led to motor issues. The letter cautions that his life may indeed be endangered, drawing parallels to the unfortunate case of U.S. student Otto Warmbier, who died following his detention in North Korea.

A Hostage Situation

In response to these issues, the attorney generals have asked Biden to officially recognize the situation as a hostage case under the Robert Levinson Hostage Recovery and Hostage-Taking Accountability Act. This classification would enable the U.S. government to allocate additional resources and exert greater diplomatic pressure for his release.

The letter also highlights how Gambaryan had previously served the U.S. government before joining Binance, where he held significant roles, including a special agent with the IRS and a federal agent involved in dismantling infamous dark web sites such as AlphaBay and Silk Road. The attorneys argue that his commitment to law enforcement should be acknowledged and call on Biden to utilize all available measures to facilitate his safe return to the United States.

Yuichiro Tamaki, the leader of the Japanese Democratic Party for the People (DPP), has shared his plans for cryptocurrency tax reform in Japan. He urged supporters of digital assets to back efforts aimed at lowering excessively high local crypto tax rates while simultaneously promoting digital innovation.

As of September 27th, 2024, Shigeru Ishiba, a member of the Liberal Democratic Party, was elected as the next Japanese Prime Minister. However, his previous role as defense minister and his preference for higher taxes and increased money supply may pose challenges for cryptocurrency supporters in the nation.

Reforming The Framework

Political campaigns are once again filling the streets across both small towns and large cities in Japan, adding a distinct noise to the crisp October air. However, crypto enthusiasts might be paying closer attention to the campaign messages during the upcoming general election. On October 21st, 2024, Tamaki posted the cryptocurrency tax proposals put forth by the DPP on X, linking to an official document outlining these pledges.

Seeking votes, Tamaki is committed to reforming the current crypto tax framework, which many consider confusing and inequitable. The proposed policy focuses on enhancing NFT utilization in governance, establishing a distinct 20% tax rate for cryptocurrencies (which are currently taxed up to 55% as miscellaneous income), allowing loss deductions, and no longer requiring taxes for crypto-to-crypto transactions.

Mixed Reactions

The campaign also indicates a desire to raise permissible leverage rates for trading and to introduce cryptocurrency exchange-traded funds (ETFs). Tamaki stated the DPP will transform the Yen into a fully electronic currency and encourage local governments to issue a digital local currency (tentative name) as a crypto asset to help revitalize local economies.

While these promises may sound appealing, the reality for many Japanese citizens remains challenging, with inflation and high taxes making it hard for even retirees to manage their finances. The proposed 20% rate still undermines the original appeal of Bitcoin, which aimed to provide assistance to individuals like struggling retirees.

The response has been mixed, as someone commented via X that Japan is trying to survive by squeezing taxes out of its citizens, though others expressed support, relieved at the possibility of finally understanding how to file their taxes.

The Cryptocurrency Fear and Greed Index stood at 73 at the time of reporting, suggesting a prevailing sense of greed in the market. This optimism indicates that many investors are hopeful for further price rises, but it also raises concerns about possible market overheating.

This intensified sentiment can be a mixed blessing while it may propel prices upward, it also heightens the risk of a sharp correction. While the prevailing optimism offers opportunities for profit, traders should remain vigilant and ready for potential market fluctuations.

Why It Matters

When the Fear and Greed Index hits high values, traders might engage in excessive risk-taking, aiming for higher returns without fully assessing the potential downsides. Such behavior can lead to short-term price surges, but history indicates that phases of extreme greed often precede market pullbacks. For example, early 2021 exhibited similar levels of greed, followed by a significant market decline.

Despite the Fear and Greed Index indicating caution, the total cryptocurrency market capitalization remained robust at $2.23 trillion, showcasing sustained interest by institutional and retail investors. Major cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin (BTC) and Ethereum (ETH) continued to underpin the overall market value, contributing to its positive trajectory.

Cautiously Optimistic

Altcoins such as Solana (SOL) and Worldcoin (WLD) have played a crucial role in supporting the current momentum which the crypto market is experiencing. The stability in market capitalization, despite the rising greed, reflects enduring confidence in the long-term prospects of the crypto space.

As the Fear and Greed Index firmly indicates greed, traders should consider both the opportunities and risks present. The strong market sentiment and substantial capitalization could lead to further short-term gains. However, elevated greed levels have historically been followed by corrections as investors take profits and risk appetites wane. Current high readings in the Fear and Greed Index often act as cautionary signals for impending corrections.

Bridge raised a massive $1.10B in M&A Funding with assistance by Stripe. Bridge is building a stablecoin-powered money movement platform, offering services such as payouts, cross-border payments and exchanging foreign currencies.

Canyon Network acquired $6M in Undisclosed Funding thanks to timely assistance by Fission Digital Capital. Canyon Network is an on-chain AI oracle designed to deliver verifiable AI capabilities to decentralized applications. It also enables developers to integrate trustworthy AI power into smart contracts and blockchain platforms.

ZEROBASE secured $5M in Undisclosed Funding with support by Binance Labs. ZEROBASE is a real-time zero-knowledge (ZK) prover network designed for speed, decentralization, and regulatory compliance.

Drop Protocol obtained $4M in Seed Funding with help by CoinFund. Built as an Integrated Application on Neutron, Drop Protocol has a smart contract architecture which leverages the Inter-Blockchain Communication (IBC) protocol alongside Interchain Queries (ICQ) modules, enabling the platform to provide trust-minimized liquid staking services and scale with minimal additional overhead and risk.

HyveDA raised $1.85M in Pre-Seed Funding with assistance by Lemniscap. Hyve is addressing growing demand for secure, scalable, and cost-effective data availability, which has intensified following the rapid proliferation of dApps and L2 solutions.

Marketnode secured an undisclosed amount in Strategic Funding with support by Euroclear. Marketnode is a DLT-powered financial market infrastructure in the Asia-Pacific region. It operates two flagship platforms, namely Gateway and Fundnode.

zkPass obtained $12.50M in Series A Funding with help by Animoca Brands. zkPass is a composable, privacy-preserving decentralized identity verification solution for Web3 based on multi-party computation (MPC) and zero-knowledge proof (ZKP) technologies.

Mento Labs raised $10M in Undisclosed Funding thanks to timely support by HashKey Capital. Mento is a decentralized and transparent protocol that enables the creation of stable value digital assets, such as stablecoins that track the value of fiat currencies.

The Arena secured $2M in Pre-Seed funding with assistance by Blizzard Fund and Abstract Ventures. Built on the Avalanche blockchain and formerly known as Stars Arena, The Arena is a SocialFi application that enables creators to connect, engage, and monetize their content.

Lombard acquired $1M in Undisclosed Funding with help by Binance Labs. Lombard aims to create a universal standard for Bitcoin which enables the flagship crypto to generate yields across different blockchains without splitting liquidity, thereby facilitating significant capital inflows into DeFi.

On October 18th, 2024, the United States Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) granted approval for applications by the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) and the Chicago Board Options Exchange (CBOE) to list the highly anticipated options for spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs).

Tom Dunleavy, managing partner of investment firm MV Global, noted that the addition of options may help reduce the infamous high volatility and unpredictable nature of Bitcoin and stabilize the markets over time.

A Historic Victory

Options trading will now be accessible for 11 approved ETF providers on the NYSE, which include the Fidelity Wise Origin Bitcoin Fund, ARK21Shares Bitcoin ETF, Invesco Galaxy Bitcoin ETF, Franklin Bitcoin ETF, VanEck Bitcoin Trust, the WisdomTree Bitcoin Fund, the Grayscale Bitcoin Trust and Bitcoin Mini Trust, Bitwise Bitcoin ETF, the BlackRock iShares Bitcoin Trust ETF, and the Valkyrie Bitcoin Fund.

In addition, the CBOE submitted an application in August 2024 to list options for spot Bitcoin ETF providers through a proposed rule change. This regulatory shift places Bitcoin ETF options alongside other commodity-based ETFs, which the SEC has already permitted for listing on the CBOE, excluding the aforementioned Grayscale Bitcoin Mini Trust.

Previously, several cryptocurrencies experienced positive price movements following the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission approving several spot Ethereum ETFs.

Enhancing Liquidity

Many investors anticipate that the launch of options for Bitcoin ETFs will enhance liquidity in the Bitcoin markets, potentially serving as a catalyst for price increases. Jeff Park, an executive at Bitwise, emphasized that the approval signifies a significant improvement over LedgerX and Deribit, which do not have central guarantors.

He also pointed out that the introduction of options might lead to scenarios where overleveraged short traders could face short squeezes, compelling them to purchase Bitcoin to cover their positions. Park illustrated this by claiming that a trillion-dollar asset cannot be short-squeezed is like saying an elephant cannot dance. While it is large, if enough ropes are tied to its legs and pulled hard enough, even the biggest creature can be moved in unexpected ways.

Bitcoin (BTC) has been experiencing a remarkable performance that continued over the last 24 hours, reaching $69,000 for the first time since July 29th, 2024, before experiencing a slight pullback. Most altcoins saw only minor gains during this period, with the exception of Dogecoin (DOGE), which has reinforced its recent significant surge.

Furthermore, the market capitalization of the flagship cryptocurrency has now reached an impressive $1.350 trillion, with its dominance over altcoins reaching a multi-year high of over 55%.

BTC Reaches $69K
The leading cryptocurrency hovered around $62,000 and $63,000 last Saturday after recovering several thousand dollars compared to a previous drop below $59,000 on Thursday. The previous weekend was relatively calm, but the asset took off at the start of the business week.

The most notable volatility occurred on Tuesday, when BTC surged to $68,000 before being sharply pushed down to just below $65,000. However, bulls regained momentum shortly after, allowing Bitcoin to steadily rise to new local highs as investor enthusiasm grew.

The latest peak occurred late last night when the cryptocurrency reached $69,000 for the first time in nearly three months. Although it could not maintain that level, it remains above $68,000 following a slight retracement.

DOGE Continues to Surge
Among larger-cap altcoins, the original meme coin was undoubtedly the standout performer. Earlier this week, DOGE saw an impressive 6.5% increase, bringing its price to a multi-month high of $0.144, leading to speculation about a potential rise to $1 during the current market cycle.

Other larger-cap altcoins are experiencing much less volatility. ETH, BNB, XRO, TRX, and LINK show minor losses, while SOL, TON, ADA, AVAX, and SHIB have recorded slight gains. WLD has emerged as the top performer among the largest 100 cryptocurrencies, with a notable 13% increase.

Overall, the total cryptocurrency market cap has grown by approximately $15 billion, now exceeding $2.450 trillion.

Other Markets

Excitement is building as Asian IPOs gear up for a thrilling week, reflecting a resurgence of investor enthusiasm. Meanwhile, Southwest Airlines is preparing for its earnings report, with insights into its operations shedding light on its strategic positioning. Notably, activist investor Elliott Management, which revealed a substantial $2 billion stake in the airline last June, has begun settlement talks with the company.

In the energy sector, traders appear indifferent to fluctuating oil prices, despite the implications of U.S. sanctions, as the world grapples with a looming $100 trillion fiscal crisis that threatens economic stability. Amid these challenges, TGI Fridays plans to close up to 20% of its U.S. locations as it seeks new financing to navigate potential bankruptcy. On a brighter note, India is expected to propel private credit and bond markets.

In addition, as HDFC Bank gears up for its earnings report, it has approved a $1.5 billion IPO for HDB Financial, reporting strong deposit growth that has led to a surprising profit surge. However, economists express a desire for more decisive actions by China as it outlines plans to revive its economy and combat deflation, while ongoing disputes with the EU over electric vehicle tariffs highlight tensions in international trade relations.

Bitcoin (BTC) is on track to outshine both gold and the NASDAQ, with historical evidence suggesting that the cryptocurrency thrives during monetary expansion. This year, gold has surged over 30%, while the NASDAQ has gained just 24.43%. In stark contrast, Bitcoin is leading the charge with impressive gains exceeding 52% so far.

A Remarkable History

Ecoinometrics, a crypto data provider, emphasizes the remarkable ability of BTC to excel in times of monetary growth. As major economies grapple with potential fiscal challenges, attention is shifting back to how Bitcoin reacts when fiat currencies lose value.

A striking example of this was in 2020, when governments in the U.S. and across the globe flooded their economies with liquidity in response to the COVID-19 pandemic. During this period, Bitcoin significantly outperformed traditional assets, proving itself as a reliable hedge against inflation and currency devaluation.

In the wake of the pandemic, central banks worldwide implemented extensive monetary measures. In the U.S. alone, the M2 money supply skyrocketed by an astonishing $6 trillion to address the economic fallout.

A Change In Pace

The analysis by Ecoinometrics also revealed that Bitcoin reaped substantial benefits via an influx of liquidity, achieving a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of about 150%. This remarkable growth outpaced the NASDAQ, which saw a CAGR of less than 50%, and left gold trailing far behind. The Bitcoin CAGR was also nearly four times that of the NASDAQ and around 20 times greater than gold.

Today, the economic environment seems to no longer be following the aggressive monetary expansion of 2020, with governments no longer increasing the money supply at the same rate. Consequently, BTC has shown signs of stabilization in recent months.

In its ongoing legal battle with Ripple Labs, the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) has formally challenged a previous ruling. The agency appealed the ruling made by Judge Analisa Torres by submitting a Civil Appeal Pre-Argument Statement, or Form C as it is more commonly known.

The SEC first accused Ripple of raising $1.3 billion through unregistered XRP transactions in 2020, which sparked the legal spat. Judge Torres made a crucial ruling more than a year ago, holding that the XRP sales did not break any securities laws. She did conclude, nonetheless, that direct sales of XRP to institutional investors did meet the requirements for securities. After that, in August, Ripple was mandated to pay $125 million in fines.

The Context

The legal dispute over whether XRP sales on cryptocurrency exchanges could be regarded as securities has been rekindled by this latest action. In its initial lawsuit, the SEC accused Ripple and its representatives of selling and promoting XRP without the required registration, in violation of several provisions of the Securities Act of 1933.

The organization is currently looking for information regarding whether the Southern District of New York United States District Court made a mistake in the procedures concerning Chris Larsen, co-founder of Ripple, and CEO Brad Garlinghouse. Additionally, the SEC asked that the issues be reviewed de novo, which means that the court will reconsider a decision based on inquiries into the application of the law.

Alderoty Responds

Stuart Alderoty, the Chief Legal Officer of Ripple, commented on the SEC filing through X, stating that the company intends to file its Form C the following week. He declared that this should come as no surprise as it has already been explained, and that there will be no appeal of the decision made by the court regarding the security status of XRP. The ruling is still enforceable throughout the nation, he concluded.

On October 2nd, the SEC filed its initial appeal, claiming that the ruling made by the district court in the Ripple case runs counter to decades of previous documents and cases which have, in their words, always been referred to concerning securities legislation and Supreme Court precedent.

In response to the SEC, Ripple filed a cross-appeal to make sure all relevant factors were considered and taken into account, in line with what Alderoty had to say regarding the need for rights and obligations in order to clearly define what an investment contract actually is and entails.

A recent report by Aspen Digital indicates that 76% of private wealth in Asia has engaged with digital assets, with an additional 18% intending to invest in the future. Interest in digital assets has surged since a 2022 survey conducted by the Hong Kong-based wealth management platform, which revealed that only 58% of respondents had explored this space.

Renewed Enthusiasm

The report gathered insights via 80 family offices and high-net-worth individuals across Asia, primarily managing assets between $10 million and $500 million. Among those already investing in cryptocurrencies, 70% have dedicated less than 5% of their portfolios to digital assets, although some have raised their allocations to over 10% in 2024.

The attraction to blockchain-based technological benefits is evident, with two-thirds of participants expressing interest in decentralized finance (DeFi) and 61% showing enthusiasm for artificial intelligence and decentralized physical infrastructure networks (DePIN). Aspen Digital also highlighted that respondents are generally optimistic about Bitcoin for the rest of 2024, with 31% forecasting a price of $100,000 by year-end.

Growing Interest

The recent approval of spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) has enhanced interest in digital assets among Asian investors, as 53% of participants are now exposed through funds or ETFs. This trend mirrors global shifts noted in the recent Global Crypto Hedge Fund Report by AIMA and PwC.

Their survey of nearly 100 hedge funds managing a combined $124.5 billion reported an increase in crypto exposure to 47% in 2024, driven by clearer regulations and the introduction of crypto ETFs in the United States and Asia. Spot Bitcoin ETFs began trading in the US in January 2024, followed by the launch of spot Bitcoin and Ether ETFs in Hong Kong in April.

World Liberty Financial (WLFI), a newly launched DeFi token backed by Donald Trump, kicked off with impressive momentum, generating $5 million within its first hour. Nevertheless, the initiative has encountered technical challenges that have hindered its operations.

These issues have also raised doubts among the crypto community, particularly due to the former United States President himself being notably absent during the launch in addition to the timing of the launch as it is very close to the upcoming election.

Long Term Viability

Initially, WLFI was available exclusively to whitelisted investors, aiming to raise $300 million in its first round. Despite strong interest, the debut of the token was marred by operational setbacks, including a website crash and transaction issues affecting ongoing sales. These technical hurdles, along with Trump being absent, have led to worries regarding the longevity of the project alongside its capacity to fulfill its commitments.

Various crypto leaders and experts have additionally expressed skepticism about what kind of technical strategy the project seems to be adopting. Manuel Ferrari, Co-Founder of Money On Chain, suggested that many investors might find greater value in Bitcoin (BTC) instead of participating in the Trump-themed DeFi venture.

Optimistically Cautious

Access to sales was limited, as the initial round catered solely to accredited investors, defined by the SEC as individuals with a net worth over $1 million or an annual income of $200,000. Even with this exclusivity, World Liberty faced difficulties in managing these sales efficiently, further questioning the readiness of the project.

Currently, the World Liberty website remains down, yet on-chain data shows that staggered transactions continue to be processed. It is uncertain whether these technical issues will persist, but the strong interest in WLFI indicates a sustained demand, even as the crypto community approaches the initiative with caution.