Risk Off In A Time Off Strong USD

Celsius has filed an appeal against a court ruling that dismissed its damage claims against FTX in its bankruptcy case. The crypto lending platform initially sought $2 billion in damages, alleging that disparaging statements by FTX executives led to its downfall.

The claim was later revised to $444 million, focusing on preferential transfers that favored some creditors. In December, Judge Dorsey rejected both claims, ruling that the original proofs of claim were insufficient.

Clarity Is Key

On December 31st, Mohsin Meghji, the litigation administrator for Celsius, filed a notice of appeal regarding Judge Dorsey and their decision. Sunil Kavuri, an FTX creditor activist, explained that Celsius filed a $2 billion disparagement claim before the deadline, then submitted an amended $444 million claim for preferential transfers after the deadline.

The court ruled that the amended claims were improper because they were not filed with permission, lacked a clear connection to the original claims, and would hinder restructuring efforts for FTX. Celsius countered that the original claims were sufficient to notify FTX of potential issues.

Plenty To Go Around

An August filing revealed that Celsius had repaid $2.53 billion to around 250,000 creditors, covering 84% of the debt owed. In November, it also announced plans to distribute another $127 million to creditors through its litigation recovery fund. Meanwhile, CEL surged 350% in September but has since dropped below $0.20, down 97.5% compared to its peak.

The Sonic S token is set to replace the FTM token (introduced by the Fantom blockchain) at a 1:1 ratio and will be available across 13 major exchanges, including top platforms like Binance and Bybit.

A Much-Needed Integration

The aforementioned exchanges will also facilitate automatic token upgrades by integrating with the Sonic network. Sonic operates as a blockchain compatible with both the Solana Virtual Machine (SVM) and the Ethereum Virtual Machine (EVM).

Its mainnet, developed by Sonic Labs and co-founded by Andre Cronje, officially launched on December 13th, 2024. The platform also offers a high-performance blockchain infrastructure capable of processing up to 10,000 transactions per second (TPS) and providing block finality in under one second.

Fantom Network Still Working
The Sonic S token will be the backbone of the Sonic ecosystem, which shares a token supply of 3.175 billion with Fantom. To boost participation and adoption, Sonic Labs has set aside 190.5 million tokens within the new network.

Although the transition to Sonic is underway, the Fantom network will remain operational and active. As of now, the TVL (Total Value Locked) (TVL) of the network exceeds $168 million, according to DefiLlama.

Various cryptocurrencies linked to Keith Gill, also known as Roaring Kitty, saw a dramatic surge on Wednesday night after he shared a Rick James-themed GIF featuring Dave Chappelle impersonating the iconic musician.

Meme Coins Surge

While the market connection was not immediately clear, it nevertheless triggered significant movement in the crypto space, with the Solana-based meme coin GmeStop (GME) rising over 13% in 24 hours and the BNB Chain-based GameStop Coin (GME) soaring 328%, according to CoinMarketCap.

These coins are associated with GameStop Corp. (GME), the meme stock at the heart of the now infamous Roaring Kitty 2021 short squeeze. Even coins with Kitty in their name, such as Kitty AI, saw a 6% gain. 

Riding The Speculation Wave

It is worth mentioning that although these meme coins have no actual ties to GameStop or Roaring Kitty, they are riding on speculation about a possible repeat of the 2021 short squeeze event. Roaring Kitty made his social media return in 2024 after a three-year hiatus and has been posting sporadically on X, with his posts continuing to influence both the stock and cryptocurrency markets.

The Kekius Maximus (KEKIUS) meme coin saw a sharp decline this week following Elon Musk going back to his original profile avatar on X (Twitter).

Getting Back On Track

The Solana-based meme coin had been enjoying a significant rally leading up to Wednesday afternoon, briefly peaking at $0.0057. However, the coin suddenly plummeted by an astonishing 90% within just 10 minutes after Musk went back to his original profile avatar.

Despite the drastic crash, KEKIUS still managed to show impressive gains, surging by 232% in the past day. This continued momentum helped it maintain some positive ground despite the steep drop. The trading volume of Kekius Maximus also exploded by 1310%, reaching a massive $9.9 million over the last 24 hours.

PEPE Suffers

As KEKIUS was crashing, PEPE also saw a decline, dropping 2.70% over the past 24 hours and wiping out some of its recent gains. The dramatic price swings came after Musk updated his X profile, which had previously been changed to Kekius Maximus.

Unexpectedly, the Tesla CEO swapped his profile picture to feature Pepe the Frog styled as Maximus, a character in the iconic film Gladiator. Regardless, the sharp fluctuations underscored the inherent risk and unpredictable nature of meme coins.

The unexpected crash in the price of Bitcoin (BTC) to $91,000 was driven by decreasing market dominance and rising volatility. Despite this setback, one analyst envisions an even more pessimistic future for the leading cryptocurrency. The emergence of a bearish flag pattern points to possible further declines, with some predicting a deeper plunge toward $90,000.

Further Drops Expected

Pejman Zwin, a crypto analyst on TradingView, shared a chart analysis forecasting a notably negative outlook for Bitcoin. This grim prediction is based on the formation of a bearish flag pattern alongside other crucial technical indicators. According to Zwin, this chart formation often indicates a continuation of a prior downtrend. If this pattern holds, Bitcoin might soon break downward, leading to substantial price drops.

Zwin pointed out that the 50-day Moving Average (MA), currently near $95,970, has acted as a significant resistance or support level for Bitcoin. Recently, however, the flagship cryptocurrency dipped below this MA, marking a bearish development and suggesting further declines.

The analyst also noted that Bitcoin is situated within a robust support zone ranging between $95,000 and $90,870. He stressed that the cryptocurrency is breaking through essential support lines, which could signal an ongoing downward trend.

Need For Caution

Given the current technical indicators and chart patterns, Zwin anticipates a considerable price drop toward $91,000. The analyst emphasized that a move to $91,000 is the minimum expected, occurring if Bitcoin breaks through its current support levels.

Zwin also mentioned that if the heavy support zone is breached, Bitcoin might experience additional bearish pressure, potentially revisiting lower levels around $90,540. His bearish prediction follows a recent decline to $91,000 on Monday, with the market sentiment of BTC weakening and its price action showing no signs of slowing.

While the analyst predicts a bearish trend for Bitcoin, he also outlined a potential bullish scenario. Zwin suggested that if Bitcoin were to break above the resistance at $95,974, it could invalidate the bearish flag pattern and trigger a reversal, paving the way for an upward movement.

Grayscale Research forecasts that smart contract platforms will lead the crypto market in Q1 2025, with names like Solana, Sui, and TON gaining market share. Despite everything that Ethereum accomplished in 2024, including ETF approval and software upgrades, it lags behind its faster, more agile competitors.

Key Growth Areas

The Grayscale report highlighted various key growth areas, namely tokenization, DePin (Decentralized Physical Infrastructure Networks), and scaling solutions. These sectors have shown strong performance and remain central to the investment focus of many companies. Grayscale noted that smart contracts stood out as the most competitive segment.

The report also noted that the value of smart contract platforms depends on their ability to generate network fee revenue, which can benefit users through token burns or staking rewards. The top 20 platforms for this quarter include ETH, SOL, SUI, and OP.

Competition Heats Up

Nowadays, many platforms besides Ethereum offer fast transactions and low fees. Solana, in particular, has experienced rapid growth and adoption. Tokenization is also gaining traction, promising increased transparency and efficiency in finance. DePin is similarly growing, as decentralized networks for infrastructure like Internet connectivity and data storage continue to gain attention.

Scaling solutions, essential for maintaining performance as blockchain adoption increases, are another priority. While Grayscale helped secure Bitcoin ETF approval in 2024, it lost its dominant position in that market but remains influential in advancing Ethereum ETFs and other products.

The United Kingdom Financial Conduct Authority (FCA) has not yet imposed penalties on companies that fail to eliminate illegal cryptocurrency advertisements. Despite clear instructions by the regulatory authority to remove such promotions, half of the prohibited ads remain online as of this writing.

It is worth mentioning that the FCA does not possess the authority to enforce the removal of unapproved content on online platforms and instead depends on negotiations with tech companies in good faith. 

Exercising Authority

Data acquired via a freedom of information request shows that between October 2023 and October 2024, only 54% of the 1,702 alerts issued by the FCA led to the removal of illegal crypto ads, apps, or websites.

The regulatory body holds the power to levy fines or pursue criminal charges against entities breaching new regulations, which stipulate that crypto ads must be approved by the FCA or an FCA-authorized entity before they are published, or face the stringent actions the regulator has promised.

Clamping Down On Influencers

Sources familiar with the FCA suggest that the agency has not yet used its full authority, instead concentrating efforts on financial influencers promoting such schemes online. The FCA has launched criminal cases against nine individuals accused of endorsing unauthorized schemes involving high-risk derivatives on Instagram, including TV personalities known for shows like Love Island and The Only Way Is Essex.

In October of the prior year, the FCA revealed that it was interviewing 20 additional financial influencers who had been cautioned for unlawfully promoting financial products. Former FCA chairman Charles Randell stressed the necessity of penalizing firms that refuse to eliminate non-compliant content, arguing that substantial legal threats are essential to drive change among tech platforms and authorized crypto asset exchanges.

Several crypto projects that saw notable growth in 2024 are anticipated to hold a Token Generation Event (TGE) in the first quarter of 2025. Platforms like Monad and Pump.fun secured significant investments throughout the year, fueled by rising user engagement and key advancements. These projects are expected to unveil their own tokens in early 2025.

Upcoming TGEs
Blockchain analyst Colin Wu shared a list of potential TGE projects via social media, albeit offering little explanation. Previously, he predicted that $HYPE would debut by the end of 2024. The list for Q1 2025 features both returning and new projects.

For instance, Wu foresaw Monad launching a TGE in 2024 back in July, and it remains a top contender. Monad achieved impressive fundraising success last summer, and a TGE could further boost the company in 2025. However, Wu has shifted focus, now identifying Pump.fun as the leading candidate, which previously reached $100 million in revenue.

Other Notable Names

Wu and his team highlighted other successful fundraisers that may launch a TGE soon. Story Protocol, one of the largest recipients of venture capital in August, has yet to issue a token. Likewise, Polymarket teased a token launch following a major pre-election trading surge, but nothing has come to fruition so far.

This analysis includes an additional insight, namely the volume and origins of investment capital leading up to a potential token launch. Some prominent names have backed multiple candidates, including Polychain, which supported several large airdrops in December. This could indicate a forthcoming TGE or airdrop in the near future.

Scam Sniffer has identified a fraudulent link titled Optimism x Base Airdrop, which was subsequently added to its domain warning list.

Damage Control

Although the Superchain team has yet to release a statement regarding the issue, the deceptive tweet is no longer visible on the Superchain Eco X account. Users are urged to avoid clicking on associated links and are advised to verify the authenticity of any related information to avoid falling victim to such scams.

The Superchain Ecosystem
The Superchain, designed by Optimism, is a network of interconnected Layer-2 blockchains that operate using common development toolkits, security models, and shared communication layers. This ecosystem is horizontally scalable, allowing for the sharing of security and communication protocols across chains, thus speeding up development on the OP Stack.

Moreover, it utilizes a different model as compared to the traditional siloed structure of blockchains by enabling the creation of interconnected Layer-2 networks, all built on the same OP Stack.

Ai16z, a decentralized autonomous organization (DAO) powered by an AI agent, surpassed a $1 billion market cap following the release of its launchpad proposal.

A Huge Milestone

On December 28th, Ai16z saw a 50% surge, reaching a market cap of $1.5 billion, becoming the first Solana-based AI agent token to achieve this milestone. By December 29th, it corrected to $1.3 billion but surged again, hitting a new all-time high of $1.7 billion, according to Coingecko. As of now, the token has experienced over 600% growth in the past month.

Several Proposals

Following the price surges, the Ai16z community is considering various proposals to expand its ecosystem in 2025. One proposal is to launch a meme coin platform, similar to Pump.fun, set for Q1 2025. The platform will use Eliza, an AI agent framework, to support agent-to-agent interactions and multi-chain integration. The aim is to build a self-sustaining economic system that helps facilitate easier launches, scaling, and liquidity.

Other ideas include transforming Ai16z into a Layer-1 blockchain for AI agents and applications, and implementing a community curation process to vet projects before they launch, ensuring they align with the DAO and its mission.

Political instability in South Korea continues to strain markets, with XRP down 2% in the past 24 hours and the won trading below 1,470 per dollar. The arrest warrant for former President Yoon Suk Yeol has worsened market fears both locally and globally.

Political Fallout

On Tuesday, the Seoul Western District Court issued a search and arrest warrant for Yoon, related to his attempt to impose martial law during a televised address on December 3rd. This is the first time in South Korean history that an arrest warrant has been issued against a sitting president.

Yoon refused to comply with summons by the Corruption Investigation Office (CIO), which led to local regulatory agencies investigating him for treason and abuse of power. His martial law announcement, citing anti-state elements and North Korean threats, was swiftly overturned by parliament on December 4th, but the political fallout has been significant.

Impact On Crypto
The political crisis has extended to the broader cryptocurrency market, with major cryptocurrencies like BTC, ETH, and XRP briefly dropping by up to 4%. Trading in South Korea surged as retail traders targeted altcoins like XRP and DOGE.

Despite recovery after parliament overturned martial law, volatility persists. Bitcoin fell to $92,500, a 0.6% drop in 24 hours, with trading volume rising 62%. Ethereum dropped 2.4% to just above $3,300, with volume growing by 56%. XRP dropped 2% in 24 hours on Upbit, trading below 3,000 won and down 12% over the past week.

The broader crypto market declined by 1.3% to $3.22 trillion, though trading volumes surged 40%, as investors seek to lock in profits.

Tokens inspired by the Squid Game series on Netflix have surged in the market following the release of its second season. However, members of the community have raised concerns that these tokens could be scams or potential rug pulls.

PeckShield Issues Scam Warning

On December 26th, Netflix debuted the second season of the hugely popular Korean dystopian thriller Squid Game. The series centers around a private competition where players, facing severe financial hardship, risk their lives for the chance to win a large cash prize.

On December 27th, blockchain security firm PeckShield issued a warning to the community about potentially fraudulent Squid Game tokens. According to the firm, scam tokens based on the Netflix series are circulating in the wild.

PeckShield also highlighted a particular token deployed on the Base network, where the wallet of the deployer was its largest holder. Since its release, the value of the token has plummeted by 99%. Additionally, other similar Squid Game tokens have emerged on the Solana blockchain.

Previous Squid Game Token Scams In 2021

An account on X, using the same name as the Squid Game series, had been promoting one of these tokens. However, a community member cautioned users against purchasing it, pointing out that the largest token holders appeared to be concentrated among a few addresses. This raised concerns that these holders could dump their tokens once the price rises, leading to potential losses for new investors.

When Squid Game premiered in 2021, tokens associated with the series quickly appeared in the crypto market. One token saw an astronomical rise in value, soaring over 45,000%. However, suspicions of a scam emerged when users reported being unable to sell their coins. At the time, CoinMarketCap issued a warning that the tokens could not be traded on PancakeSwap, leading many to suspect that it was a rug pull.