Polymarket Could Be Banned In France After Raking In Over $3 Billion

The French National Gaming Authority is reportedly considering blocking Polymarket, the blockchain-based platform for prediction markets that recorded $3.5 billion in trading volume during the U.S. Presidential Election.

Earlier this year, Societe Generale FORGE, a subsidiary under the umbrella of the venerable French banking institution Societe Generale, began working on EUR CoinVertible (EURCV), a stablecoin linked to the Euro and deployed on the Ethereum blockchain.

A Personal Gamble

Regulatory scrutiny arose after a French trader named Théo made multimillion-dollar wagers on Donald Trump winning the election, resulting in a $47 million payout when Trump won a second term. The potential ban is based on the ability of the regulator to block access and domain names, and it could also exert pressure on media outlets that direct users to the platform.

France is well known for its stringent policies and regulations, with Pavel Durov, the founder and CEO of Telegram, being detained in the country just a few months ago. Polymarket reportedly contacted Théo, noting his substantial trading experience and background in financial services. After investigating, the platform concluded that the betting activity was motivated by what Théo considers personal views on politics.

The Scrutiny Continues

Polymarket has also faced mounting scrutiny globally, with the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission investigating the platform as early as 2021. The CFTC later proposed new rules aimed at regulating prediction markets to reduce manipulation risks.

Despite regulatory challenges, Polymarket continues to attract substantial betting volumes. The platform raised $74 million in early investments, including backing by Ethereum co-founder Vitalik Buterin, though it remains unavailable to users in the U.S.

Polymarket has also seen significant activity surrounding the 2024 U.S. election, with over $294 million in trading volume on November 5th, 2024 alone. While concerns about insider trading persist, Polymarket has successfully predicted major election outcomes, such as Biden withdrawing and Trump winning, weeks ahead of time.