XRP Price Prediction: 94% Holders In Profit

Key Takeaways

• 94% of XRP supply is in profit, a historical signal of market tops.

• NUPL readings are in the belief-denial phase, often a precursor to distribution.

• A descending triangle suggests a possible 20%+ price drop if $3.05 support breaks.

• A bullish breakout could send XRP to $6, but near-term risks are significant.

• Traders should watch key levels closely and manage risk accordingly.

XRP Price Rally Puts 94% Of Supply In Profit

According to Glassnode, 93.92% of XRP’s circulating supply is currently in profit, thanks to a stunning 500% surge in the last nine months, from under $0.40 to a recent high of $3.11.

XRP’s Percent Supply In Profit

Source: Glassnode

Historically, such extreme profitability levels have coincided with major market tops. For instance:

• In early 2018, over 90% of holders were in profit just before XRP peaked near $3.30, followed by a brutal 95% correction.

• A similar scenario unfolded in April 2021, where profitability levels above 90% preceded an 85% crash from the $1.95 mark.

When more than 90% of supply is in profit, XRP has historically faced significant downside risk.

This high percentage often reflects market euphoria and creates conditions ripe for profit-taking and distribution among traders.

XRP NUPL Enters ‘Belief–Denial’ Zone

Another key metric flashing red is XRP’s Net Unrealized Profit/Loss (NUPL).

This indicator evaluates the overall sentiment by comparing unrealized gains and losses held by network participants.

XRP’s NUPL (Net Unrealized Profit/Loss)

Source: Glassnode

What Does The ‘Belief–Denial’ Zone Indicate?

NUPL readings above 0.5 typically indicate that investors are in a state of strong belief in continued gains. However, this phase often precedes a market top as profit-taking sentiment begins to rise.

Looking back:

• In late 2017, XRP’s NUPL surged as price touched $3.30.

• In April 2021, NUPL again peaked above 0.5 before XRP dropped sharply.

Currently, XRP is showing a similar NUPL trajectory, suggesting the market is optimistic but increasingly vulnerable to a pullback, especially if NUPL climbs further toward the historical “greed” zone.

XRP Faces Bearish Technical Pattern

Descending Triangle Forms On XRP Chart

XRP’s price action is forming a descending triangle, a pattern often associated with bearish outcomes. The triangle is marked by:

• Lower highs on the upper trendline

• Strong horizontal support around $3.05

Earlier this month, XRP briefly broke below this support in a false breakdown before bouncing back. However, continued retests of support increase the likelihood of a genuine breakdown.

XRP/USD 4-Hour Price Chart

Source: TradingView

Bearish & Bullish Scenarios

If XRP decisively breaks below $3.05, it could trigger a decline to around $2.39, a 23.5% drop from current levels.

To invalidate the bearish outlook, bulls need to push XRP above the descending resistance line. If successful, this could reignite bullish momentum and send XRP toward the $6 target, as suggested by some analysts.

FAQ

Has XRP price reached a top?

While nothing is certain, several on-chain metrics, including supply in profit and NUPL, suggest that XRP may be near a local top. Historically, similar conditions have preceded sharp corrections.

Can XRP fall below $3 again?

Yes. If the descending triangle breaks down, XRP could decline to $2.39 or lower. This would be in line with a 20–25% correction based on chart patterns.

What would invalidate the bearish prediction?

A breakout above the descending triangle’s upper boundary and sustained price action above $3.50 could signal a return to bullish momentum and challenge the $6 resistance.

Is XRP still a good investment?

That depends on your time horizon. In the short term, caution is warranted. Long-term investors may still see upside, especially if broader crypto market momentum continues and XRP sees institutional adoption.