Steven McClurg sees a greater than 50% chance Bitcoin will hit $140K–$150K before entering a bear market.
Macroeconomic concerns, particularly Fed rate policy, remain a key risk factor.
Institutional interest, including ETFs and sovereign funds, continues to drive price action.
Michael Saylor and Matt Hougan remain bullish, dismissing the idea of a near-term bear cycle.
Bitcoin’s future price action depends heavily on economic data, regulatory moves, and investor sentiment.
McClurg’s upper target of $150K suggests potential upside of around 27%, signaling what he believes could be the final stretch of this current bull run.
Canary Capital’s Steven McClurg On CNBC’s Crypto World This Past Friday
Source: CNBC
In his words:
“I think there is a greater than 50% chance Bitcoin goes to the $140K to $150K range this year before we see another bear market next year.”
McClurg expressed concerns about the U.S. economic environment, especially the Federal Reserve’s handling of interest rates. He believes the Fed should have already started cutting rates and predicts rate cuts in September and October.
His argument is that economic headwinds could limit further gains in risk assets like Bitcoin, even as institutional interest increases.
According to the CME FedWatch Tool, there’s a 92.5% chance of a rate cut in September, reinforcing McClurg’s prediction.
McClurg attributes much of Bitcoin’s recent strength to spot Bitcoin ETF inflows and treasury firm investments. He said:
“We’re seeing large allocations coming in, not just from small institutions but from large sovereign wealth funds and insurance companies.”
These types of buyers bring in large capital volumes, which have helped push Bitcoin prices higher throughout 2025. However, McClurg cautioned that this kind of buying could slow down in the coming months, signaling a potential turning point.
One of the most vocal Bitcoin bulls, Michael Saylor, disagrees entirely with the idea of an incoming bear market. The executive chairman of MicroStrategy continues to forecast explosive long-term growth for BTC:
“We’re past that phase; if Bitcoin’s not going to zero, it’s going to $1 million.”
Saylor believes that the current adoption phase is just the beginning, and institutional demand is still in its early stages.
Source: X (@kyle_chasse)
Echoing Saylor’s optimism, Matt Hougan, CIO at Bitwise Asset Management, expects strong crypto performance over the next few years. He said:
“I bet 2026 is an up year. I broadly think we’re in for a good few years.”
Hougan believes the combination of regulatory clarity, ETF growth, and rising retail adoption sets the stage for continued upside.
Fed Rate Decisions – September and October rate cuts could either fuel or dampen Bitcoin’s rally.
Institutional Buying Trends – Will sovereign wealth funds and insurance firms continue accumulating?
ETF Flows – Ongoing inflows are critical for short-term price support.
Macroeconomic Conditions – A worsening economy could trigger risk-off sentiment.
While $150K BTC is a possibility, it hinges on these variables aligning positively.
Canary Capital’s Steven McClurg predicts that Bitcoin could reach $150,000 in 2025 before the onset of a bear market, based on strong institutional inflows and ETF momentum.
McClurg believes a bear market may begin in 2026, while other experts like Michael Saylor and Matt Hougan argue that Bitcoin’s bull market could continue for several years.
Key drivers include:
Continued spot Bitcoin ETF inflows
Institutional investment from sovereign wealth funds and insurance companies
Potential Federal Reserve rate cuts boosting investor appetite for risk assets
According to Michael Saylor, yes. He believes Bitcoin has unlimited upside if it continues to be adopted as a store of value and hedge against inflation.
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