SOL Surges Ahead Of Solana ETF Decision

Key Takeaways

• SOL rebounded from $190 to $213, fueled by aggressive retail buying.

• Traders appear to be positioning for a positive Solana ETF decision on Oct. 10th.

• Retail longs peaked at 78.2%, while order books leaned heavily toward buyers.

• To revisit $250, watch for rising open interest, futures volume, and global session returns.

• The U.S. market session is currently leading the bullish momentum.

Retail Traders Bought The Entire Dip

Evidence From Cumulative Volume Delta

As the broader crypto market sold off last week, Solana’s cumulative volume delta (CVD) revealed an interesting trend. On Binance, retail-sized trades (between 100 to 1,000 SOL) were stacked heavily on the buy side.

Source: Velo

This buying behavior was mirrored on Coinbase, where even institutional-sized accounts (10,000 to 10 million SOL) took advantage of the dip.

Retail appetite for SOL remained undeterred, even as other altcoins faltered.

Retail Longs Soar

According to Hyblock’s True Retail Longs vs. Shorts metric, retail long positions surged from 54.3% to 78.2% at the height of the sell-off. That’s a strong sign that traders viewed the price dip as a buying opportunity, not a bearish signal.

Moreover, Solana’s aggregate spot order book bid-ask ratio rose to 0.47, confirming that buyers dominated the order book.

What Needs to Happen For SOL To Hit $250 Again?

While momentum is building, hitting the $250 mark again will require more than just bullish sentiment.

Watch Open Interest & Volume

• CME Futures Open Interest (OI) peaked at $2.12 billion on Sept. 18, when SOL hit its yearly high of $253.

• As of Sept. 26, OI had dropped to $1.72 billion, and futures volume had fallen to $400 million, down from $1.57 billion.

To revisit those highs, open interest and trading volume must climb back toward those levels.

Aggregate OI Still Lags Behind

Data from Hyblock shows aggregate OI currently remains below the previous peak of $3.65 billion.

For SOL to challenge $250 again, we need to see this number climb steadily, ideally before the Solana ETF decision on October 10th.

Solana Bounces Back Strong

After dipping to $190.85 last week, SOL surged back to $213 on Monday, a near 12% gain over just three days.

SOL/USDT Hourly Chart

Source: TradingView

This sharp rebound suggests strong market confidence, likely driven by retail investors and institutional positioning ahead of the Solana ETF ruling.

U.S. Market Sessions Lead The Charge

Another bullish signal is Solana’s cumulative return per session, segmented by region (U.S., APAC, and EU):

• U.S. trading sessions have turned consistently positive since Friday.

• If APAC and EU sessions follow this trend, it would further validate the idea of global rotation into SOL ahead of the ETF ruling.

• For SOL to sustain its rally, buying activity must spread across time zones, not just be U.S.-centric.

Could The Solana ETF Be The Catalyst?

The crypto community is closely watching the SEC’s decision on a Solana ETF, due by October 10th. A favorable outcome could:

• Legitimize Solana as a mainstream institutional asset

• Boost inflows from traditional investors

• Spark a new all-time high (ATH) rally

Whether the Solana ETF approval happens or not, traders are clearly preparing for a volatility spike.

FAQ

What is a Solana ETF?

A Solana ETF (Exchange-Traded Fund) would allow investors to gain exposure to SOL price movements through traditional financial markets, without directly owning the token.

When will the SEC decide on the Solana ETF?

The final decision from the SEC is expected by October 10, 2025.

Is $250 a realistic target for SOL?

If momentum continues, and a positive ETF decision is announced, $250 could be back in play. However, it depends on market structure, open interest, and trading volume.

How can I monitor Solana ETF news?

Stay updated via official SEC filings, CryptoWeekly, Crypto Twitter, and reliable platforms like CoinMarketCap or TradingView.