Key Takeaways

• ETH Reclaims Key Level: Ethereum has crossed the Gaussian mid-line at ~$2,600, historically a bullish signal for an altseason.

• Price Targets: If momentum continues, ETH may challenge $3,200 and surge toward $4,100 by July 2025.
  
  

• Bitcoin Halving Pattern: A post-halving altcoin boom could play out within the next 100 days.

• Risks Remain: A drop below $2,300 could spark panic selling among recent buyers, creating market pressure.

ETH Price Reclaims Gaussian Mid-Line

On the 2-week chart, ETH has reclaimed the mid-line of the Gaussian Channel, which currently sits around $2,600. This moving average-based indicator is widely respected for identifying long-term momentum trends.

Ethereum Reclaiming The Gaussian Channel

Source: X (@el_crypto_prof)

With bullish momentum building in the crypto market, many investors are watching closely for a repeat of past explosive gains and the emergence of an altseason.

ETH Price History & Gaussian Channel Patterns

This isn’t the first time ETH has climbed above this mid-line:

• 2020–2021 Cycle: ETH surged from around $400 to over $4,800 after crossing the Gaussian mid-line.

• 2023 Rally: ETH jumped from below $1,500 to nearly $4,000 in less than a year after a similar breakout.

Each time, ETH’s price quickly advanced toward the upper band of the channel and eventually exceeded it, creating new highs.

Current Outlook: $3,200 Resistance In Sight

As of May 2025, the upper band of the Gaussian Channel sits near $3,200, marking the next key resistance level for ETH. If this is breached, analysts believe a surge toward $4,100, its previous cycle high, is likely by July 2025.

Could Ethereum Trigger The Next Altseason?

Crypto market analysts, such as Moustache, are pointing to the historical correlation between ETH’s breakout and widespread altcoin rallies, eventually culminating in an altseason.

He said:

“Every time ETH crosses the Gaussian mid-line, we see a massive surge across the altcoin market.”

 

Altcoin Market Cap Surges After ETH Breakouts

Historical data backs this up:

• Post-July 2020: Altcoin market cap (excluding ETH) surged by 1,400% after ETH reclaimed the mid-line.

• Post-November 2023: A 200% gain followed in the altcoin space within a year.

If ETH holds above this level, it may once again pave the way for a market-wide rally.

Bitcoin Halving Cycle Adds Fuel To the Fire

Another compelling signal comes from Bitcoin’s post-halving pattern.

The 400-Day Countdown

In both 2017 and 2021, Bitcoin dominance dropped sharply approximately 400 days after the halving. This led to:

• A decline in Bitcoin’s market dominance.

• A massive influx into altcoins, sparking powerful rallies and an altseason.

The April 2024 halving places the next potential shift right around mid-2025, within 100 days.

$15 Trillion Altcoin Market Cap?

Wimar X, a crypto analyst, suggests that if the trend holds, the total altcoin market cap could surge to $15 trillion, emphasizing the potential scale of the upcoming altseason.

Warning Signs: Bull Trap Risk Still Exists

Despite the bullish signals, not all metrics are painting a rosy picture.

Shallow Support Zone Around $2,300 To $2,500

According to Glassnode, a significant number of ETH holders, representing $123 billion in market cap, purchased their tokens in the $2,300 to $2,500 range.

Ethereum’s Market Cap By P&L

Source: Glassnode

If ETH dips slightly below this band:

• A large portion of investors would be in unrealized losses.

• This could trigger panic selling, adding downward pressure.

What This Means For ETH

While the mid-line breakout is a strong signal, Ethereum must sustain momentum and avoid slipping back into the $2,300 zone to prevent a potential bull trap scenario.

FAQ

What is the Gaussian Channel in crypto trading?

The Gaussian Channel is a technical analysis indicator made of moving averages that helps identify long-term momentum trends. A breakout above the mid-line often suggests the start of a strong bullish phase.

Could ETH really double in price?

Yes, historical data shows that ETH has doubled, or more, after breaking the Gaussian mid-line. If it repeats past patterns, ETH could reach $4,100 or higher by mid-2025.

What is ‘altseason’?

Altseason refers to a period when altcoins outperform Bitcoin, usually fueled by bullish sentiment, increased trading volume, and investor interest in smaller-cap projects.

Why does the Bitcoin halving affect altcoins?

Bitcoin halving reduces the BTC supply and often triggers broader market rallies. As Bitcoin stabilizes post-halving, investors typically rotate capital into altcoins, driving up their prices.

Is there a risk of a bull trap?

Yes. If ETH falls below the $2,300 to $2,500 cost basis range, many holders could sell to avoid losses, triggering a rapid price correction.