Bitcoin Price Prediction: Bearish August Ahead

Key Takeaways

• Bitcoin has dropped 5% in early August, historically a bearish month for crypto.
• $110,000 support is critical for any near-term bullish case.
• Historical averages suggest Bitcoin could dip to $105,000 if August mirrors previous years.
• A deeper correction could target the 200-day moving average around $99,000.
• September is also historically weak, keeping short-term sentiment cautious.

Bitcoin’s Weekend Drop: Is Support Holding?

Bitcoin’s price dropped from around $118,330 on Friday to $112,300 by Sunday.

Bitcoin’s Price On 4th August 2025

Source: CoinGecko

This decline was not unexpected by market watchers familiar with Bitcoin’s August behavior. IG Markets analyst Tony Sycamore commented on the situation, stating that Bitcoin’s recent correction tested the logical support zone near $112,000.

As of Monday, Bitcoin had recovered slightly, climbing back to $114,800. But the market remains cautious.

Technical Levels To Watch

Key Support Zones

• $112,000 – $110,000: Former all-time highs and now serving as current support.
• $99,355: The 200-day moving average, a potential downside target if support fails.

Resistance Levels

• $118,000: Recent high and short-term resistance.
• $125,000: Major monthly resistance, could be difficult to break without strong catalysts.

If Bitcoin falls below $110,000 with conviction, analysts warn that the correction could deepen, possibly revisiting the 200-day MA near $99,000.

Bitcoin Price Prediction For August

How Has Bitcoin Performed In The Past?

Data from CoinGlass reveals a consistent pattern of negative performance in Augusts dating back to 2013. In fact, Bitcoin has seen price declines in eight out of the past twelve Augusts.

The average August loss is 11.4%, suggesting that Bitcoin could potentially drop to around $105,000 if this trend continues in 2025.

Bitcoin Losses In Past Augusts

Source: CoinGlass

What’s Different This Year?

While history may be bearish, 2025 is part of a bull market cycle, often following the four-year halving pattern.

This could mean that while the short-term outlook appears negative, there is potential for a reversal later in the year, especially if macroeconomic factors stabilize.

Broader Market Context: What Could Drive Bitcoin’s Next Move?

Macroeconomic Factors At Play

Recent developments in U.S. jobs data and trade tariffs are creating uncertainty in global risk markets. Analyst Arthur Hayes has also warned that macro pressures could drag BTC back down toward the $100,000 mark.

Hayes stated in a blog post:

“If risk appetite weakens further, we could see Bitcoin slipping below six figures again.”

 

September Outlook: Not Much Better

Even if Bitcoin survives August, history suggests that September may offer little relief.

Like August, it has produced negative returns in eight out of the last 12 years, making it one of the worst months for BTC historically.

FAQ

What is the Bitcoin price prediction for August 2025?

Based on historical averages and current market structure, Bitcoin could dip to around $105,000 if the bearish August pattern continues. However, bullish reversals are possible if macroeconomic conditions improve.

Why is August a bearish month for Bitcoin?

August typically sees reduced trading volumes, summer holidays, and occasional macroeconomic instability, all of which contribute to weaker price action.

What happens if Bitcoin breaks below $110,000?

A break below this key support could see Bitcoin drop toward the $99,000 level, which aligns with its 200-day moving average.

Is September a better month for Bitcoin?

Historically, September is also weak, with eight out of the last 12 years showing negative returns. It’s important to manage expectations accordingly.

Will Bitcoin reach $125,000 this year?

It’s possible but unlikely without a strong catalyst. Key resistance lies at $125,000, and breaking it would likely require improved risk sentiment or favorable macro developments.