Key Takeaways

• Google’s Willow chip significantly reduces the quantum resources needed to break RSA encryption by a factor of 20.

• Quantum computing advances could threaten Bitcoin’s elliptic curve cryptography sooner than expected.

• Other research groups, like Project 11, are actively testing Bitcoin’s quantum vulnerabilities.

• Post-quantum cryptography standards may need faster adoption to counteract emerging quantum threats.

• Major companies like IBM and Quantinuum are aggressively pursuing quantum computing capabilities in the near future.

Google’s Shocking Revelation

According to Google, the time taken for quantum computers to potentially compromise Bitcoin (BTC) and other crypto-based systems has dramatically shortened.

The Willow Chip: A Quantum Leap In Computing Power

In December 2024, Google introduced Willow, a new quantum computing chip that the company claims could potentially break Bitcoin’s security within two days.

Google claims that Willow can solve certain complex problems in five minutes, problems that would take today’s most powerful supercomputers a staggering 10 septillion years to solve. Such a capability, if realized broadly, could spell profound changes for cryptographic security.

Critics initially feared Willow’s computational power might be enough to outpace Bitcoin’s hash rate in mere minutes, potentially rewriting the Bitcoin blockchain entirely. While these scenarios remain theoretical for now, Google’s breakthrough undeniably moves quantum computing closer to practical reality.

Quantum Computing: A Growing Threat

Understanding The Cost Of Quantum Attacks

Craig Gidney, a quantum researcher at Google, emphasized the importance of assessing how quantum attacks might target vulnerable cryptosystems. Planning a smooth transition to quantum-safe cryptography requires accurate estimates of quantum resources needed for such attacks.

Jari Pirhonen Talking About How Bitcoin Could Be Broken By A Quantum Computer

Source: X (@japi999)

In 2019, Gidney and collaborator Ekera estimated that factoring a 2048-bit RSA integer with a quantum computer would require 20 million qubits and take about eight hours. However, recent research drastically reduced that number.

How Did Google Achieve This Reduction?

Google’s breakthrough stems from both algorithmic improvements and smarter quantum error correction:

• Algorithmic Advances: Researchers found ways to perform modular exponentiations, a core mathematical operation in encryption, twice as fast, reducing the time and resources needed.

• Error Correction Improvements: By tripling the density of logical qubits’ space and adding a new layer of error correction, Google packed more quantum operations into the same physical space.

• Magic State Cultivation: A technique that strengthens special quantum ingredients, called T states, making quantum computations more efficient and less resource-intensive.

Together, these innovations dramatically reduce the workspace required for basic quantum operations, making large-scale quantum attacks more feasible.

Bitcoin’s Cryptography Under the Microscope

Bitcoin relies on elliptic curve cryptography (ECC), which shares similar mathematical principles with RSA encryption

Given Google’s advances in cracking RSA faster than expected, it’s reasonable to conclude that Bitcoin’s cryptographic defenses may face accelerated risks.

Project 11’s Bitcoin Quantum Challenge

Adding fuel to the fire, a quantum computing research group called Project 11 has launched a Bitcoin bounty worth nearly $85,000. Their goal? To incentivize breakthroughs in breaking even simplified versions of Bitcoin’s encryption with quantum computers.

Project 11 Announcing The Q-Day Prize

Source: X (@qdayclock)

The team tests keys from 1 to 25 bits, much smaller than Bitcoin’s 256-bit encryption, to track progress and urgency. They reaffirm that Bitcoin’s security depends on elliptic curve cryptography and that Shor’s algorithm, a quantum algorithm, will eventually break it.

Quantum Computing Roadmaps: IBM & Quantinuum

Meanwhile, various tech giants are also accelerating their quantum efforts:

• IBM has partnered with the University of Tokyo and University of Chicago, planning to develop a 100,000-qubit quantum computer by 2030.

• Quantinuum aims to deliver a fully immune quantum computer by 2029.

The race is on, not only to build more powerful quantum machines but also to develop cryptographic defenses capable of withstanding them.

FAQ

How soon could quantum computers break Bitcoin’s encryption?

While Google estimates that breaking RSA encryption could take less than a week with a sufficiently large quantum computer, Bitcoin’s elliptic curve cryptography is similar and could be compromised within a similar timeframe once quantum machines reach the necessary scale.

What is the significance of Google’s Willow chip?

Willow demonstrates quantum computing solving problems in minutes that would take classical supercomputers billions of years, marking a critical step toward practical quantum supremacy.

What is post-quantum cryptography?

Post-quantum cryptography involves developing cryptographic algorithms that remain secure against attacks from quantum computers, aiming to future-proof digital security.

Is my Bitcoin safe right now?

Currently, Bitcoin remains secure because sufficiently powerful quantum computers do not yet exist. However, rapid advancements in quantum research mean it is prudent to monitor developments closely.

What is Project 11’s Bitcoin bounty?

Project 11 offers a reward for anyone who can use a quantum computer to break simplified versions of Bitcoin’s encryption, helping assess how urgent the quantum threat to Bitcoin really is.